The Phillips curve in agriculture: interaction of inflation and unemployment

The goal is to analyze the manifestation of the Phillips curve on practical material. Methods – comparative, systemic, statistical, classification. Results – the authors examine the relationship between inflation and unemployment from 1991 to 2021 in the Republic of Kazakhstan through the Phillips curve. The possibility of its application for Kazakhstan economy is considered. The relevance of the article is determined by the fact that in agriculture, depreciation of money and unemployment has negative impact in the form of disproportionate development, reduced investment activity, socio-economic instability, underproduction of gross product, and redistribution costs. This requires assessment of current trends in labor market, which is an indicator of living standard of population. The degree of inflationary processes (independent variable) and unemployment (dependent variable) in dynamics for domestic agricultural sector is analyzed. The relationship of human potential with the rate of decline in purchasing power is reflected. Using statistical data, Phillips curve was constructed for a longterm period. Correlation comparison of unemployment and increase in prices for goods and services has been carried out. The dependence between the studied variables for agro-industrial complex of the republic was tested. Conclusions – the results indicate the presence of relationship which is consistent with scientific concept of A. Phillips between inflation and unemployment in certain years. The periods when there is no feedback between them predominate. There is a simultaneous increase in inflation and unemployment and their decrease. However, even after 64 years, the Phillips curve, supplemented by the studies of E. Phelps and M.Friedman, is a tool for macroeconomic analysis, implementation of macroeconomic knowledge.

1. Protasov, A.YU. Ciklicheski-volnovaya dinamika inflyacii: rossijskie i mirovye tendencii // Ekonomicheskaya teoriya v Sankt-Peterburgskom universitete: Put' v 200 let. [Cyclical-wave dynamics of inflation: Russian and global trends] // Economic theory at St. Petersburg University: A Journey of 200 years. - St-Peterburg: Izdatel'stvo Sankt-Peterburgskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta - St. Petersburg: St. Petersburg State University Publishing House, 2019, Р. 220-236. [in Russian].

2. Il'yashenko, V.V. (2016). Vzaimosvyaz' inflyacii i bezraboticy: teoreticheskie aspekty i osobennosti proyavleniya v ekonomike Rossii [Interrelation of inflation and unemployment: theoretical aspects and features of manifestation in the Russian economy] // Izvestiya Ural’skogo gosudarstvennogo economicheskogo universiteta - Izvestia of the Ural State University of Economics, 2 (64), 5-11. [in Russian].

3. Mihajlov, A.YU. (2021). Razvitie teorii chastnyh deneg Fridriha fon Hajeka i ekonomicheskie posledstviya dlya cifrovyh valyut [The development of Friedrich von Hayek's theory of private money and economic consequences for digital currencies] // Terra Economicus – Terra Economicus, 19(1), 53-62. [in Russian].

4. Akimbekova CH.U., Ahmetova G.I. & Nigmetova G.ZH. (2020). Aktual'nye voprosy zanyatosti naseleniya v agrarnom sektore [Topical issues of employment in the agricultural sector] // Problemy agrorynka – Problems of agrimarket, 2, 154-162. [in Russian].

5. Bulhairova ZH.S., Sajmagambetova G.A., Taskinbajkyzy ZH. (2020). Molodezhnaya bezrabotica v sel'skoj mestnosti [Youth unemployment in rural areas] // Problemy agrorynka – Problems of agrimarket, 1, 172-178 [in Russian].

6. Rynok truda po itogam 2020 goda [Kazakhstan's labor market by the end of 2020] [Electronic resource] – 2021. - URL: https://www.iac.enbek.kz/ru/node/1044 (date of application 16.03.2022). [in Russian].

7. Uroven’ inflyatsii v Respublike Kazakhstan v 2019 godu [Inflation rate in the Republic of Kazakhstan in 2019] [Electronic resource].- 2019.- URL:https://www.statbureau.org/ru/ka-zakhstan/inflation (date of application 24.02 2022). [in Russian].

8. Fadeeva, O.P. (2015). Sel'skie soobshchestva i hozyajstvennye uklady: ot vyzhivaniya k razvitiyu [Rural communities and economic structures: from survival to development]. – Novosibirsk: Institut ekonomiki i organizacii promyshlennogo proizvodstva Sibirskogo otdeleniya Rossijskoj akademii nauk - I Novosibirsk: Institute of Economics and Industrial Production Organization of the Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, 264 р. [in Russian].

9. Ob utverzhdenii Koncepcii razvitiya agropromyshlennogo kompleksa Respubliki Kazahstan na 2021-2030 gody [On approval of the Concept of development of the agro-in-dustrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021-2030] [Electronic resource].-2021:- URL: https://www.adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P2100000960 (date of application 15.03.2022). [in Russian].

10. Ob utverzhdenii nacional'nogo proekta po razvitiyu agropromyshlennogo kompleksa Respubliki Kazahstan na 2021-2025 gody [On approval of the national project for the development of the agro-industrial complex of the Republic of Kazakhstan for 2021-2025] [Electronic resource].-2021.-URL: https:/www.adilet.zan.kz/rus/docs/P2100000732 (date of application 17.03.2022) [in Russian].